March Madness has lived up to its name this year with at least one team seeded No. 1-15 advancing to the round of 32 in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament for the first time since 1991, and a 15-seed making the Sweet 16 for the first time ever.
The premiere Cinderella story of the tournament is without a doubt the Eagles of Florida Gulf Coast University. The Eagles knocked off No. 2 seed Georgetown, defeating the Otto Porter Jr. led Hoyas 78-68. They then became the first No. 15 seed to ever reach the Sweet 16 after withstanding San Diego State superstar Jamaal Franklin’s best efforts, winning again by double digits, 81-71.
In the South region, the University of Kansas has struggled thus far in the tournament, falling behind at halftime of both games before beating No. 16 seed Western Kentucky University by seven and No. 8 seeded University of North Carolina by 12. Star freshman Ben McLemore has played his worst basketball of the year in these first two games, averaging just 6.5 points on 2-14 shooting from the field, including 0-8 from long range.
While the Trey Burke-led Michigan Wolverines have been playing well, they have not had to deal with a lot of size in the frontcourt against Virginia Commonwealth or South Dakota State, nor have they faced elite NBA-level talent, so I believe Jeff Withey and Ben McLemore will be the deciding factor in KU’s victory.
Where Kansas will have more trouble is in the Elite Eight, assuming the University of Florida is able to hold off FGCU. Florida boasts a hyper-efficient frontcourt, featuring Erik Murphy and Patric Young. The 3-point shooting of Murphy would put Kevin Young and Perry Ellis out on the perimeter to leave the middle of the floor wide open for the Gators’ speedy guards. I think Florida will have a great chance to take on Kansas, and head to its third Final Four in the last eight years.
The overall No. 1 seed University of Louisville has yet to be challenged in the tournament. The Cardinals’ suffocating full-court press has forced an average of 23 turnovers in the past two games against No. 16 seed North Carolina A&T and No. 8 seed Colorado State University, which featured Lawrence product Dorian Green. The Cardinals’ 28.5 point average margin of victory is the highest in the tournament, and I do not expect them to slow down against the University of Oregon in the Sweet 16, or against either Duke or Michigan State University. Neither team is used to facing a full-court press, and the shot blocking prowess of Gorgui Dieng will give any big man trouble on the block, whether it be Duke’s Mason Plumlee, or the Derrick Nix-Adreian Payne combo of Michigan State.
The Sweet 16 will feature two Kansas schools, with the University of Kansas, and more surprisingly, Wichita State University. The Shockers upset top seeded Gonzaga after handling Pittsburgh. Next up for the Shockers will be La Salle, which upset Kansas State and Ole Miss in Kansas City before advancing to the Sweet 16. The other matchup in the West region features No. 2 seed Ohio State against No. 6 seed Arizona. The Buckeyes needed a questionable charging call and a buzzer-beating 3-pointer by Aaron Craft to squeak by Iowa State, but I fully expect the Buckeyes to beat Arizona and Wichita State to make it out of the West Region.
The East is the only region with all four top seeds remaining. Indiana, the No. 1 seed in the region, had a tough time dealing with Khaliff Wyatt and the Temple Owls in the round of 32, and will face an up-and-down, but extremely talented Syracuse team in the Sweet 16. Sophomore point guard Michael Carter-Williams should have a tough time when guarded by Naismith Award finalist Victor Oladipo, and the Orange do not quite have the size and defensive presence to match up with the Hoosiers’ potential NBA lottery pick Cody Zeller.
While Syracuse’s Rakeem Christmas averages almost two blocks a game, he does have a tendency for foul trouble, which Zeller should be able to take advantage of. The other Sweet 16 matchup will be between No. 2 seed Miami and No. 3 seed Marquette. The Hurricane have a great advantage in size and athleticism, and should be able to hold off the Golden Eagles, barring a spectacular effort by their star player Vander Blue.
Miami would be able to give Indiana fits on the defensive end with 6-foot-11-inch Kenny Kadji and 6-foot-10-inch Julian Gamble to help on Zeller. The quality 3-point shooters in Shane Larkin, Durand Scott and Trey McKinney Jones will also neutralize Indiana’s tough interior defense. I have the Hurricanes taking down the Hoosiers and making their first ever Final Four.
