Iraq is not going to be what loses the White House for the Republicans in 2008. Well, it certainly could be, but the Democrats don’t have a viable solution to the war any more than the Republicans do, and, unless someone actually does concoct a genius exit plan, no one will be able to win on the issue. No, the greatest threat to the Republican Party in the next presidential election is the Christian Right – you know, those social conservatives out there who use personal religious ideology to justify their somewhat intolerant views on issues like abortion, gay marriage and not eating meat on Fridays. These folks and their issues could wreck the GOP and throw the Republican presidential nominee so far to the right that a win will be impossible.

Socially conservative evangelical Christians have formed a large and loud voting bloc in the GOP ever since they chose Reagan over Carter. Every election year since, the Christian Right continued to expand its power within the party until it became the cornerstone of President Bush’s victories in 2000 and 2004. In fact, in a speech given shortly after the 2004 decision, it was Bill Clinton who noted that the mobilization of social conservatives over the issue of gay marriage was a major factor in George W. Bush’s re-election.

Here’s where 2008 comes in: none of the forerunners for the Republican Party have a solid history of social conservatism. John McCain has only recently worked to embrace instead of denounce the Christian Right, Mitt Romney once supported abortion rights and is now trying to change sides and Rudy Giuliani is as far away from socially conservative as one can be and still be in the Republican Party. How can these guys get the Republican nomination without courting or at least talking to the loudest people in the GOP tent? Some pundits have already suggested these evangelical constituents are lying in wait for a heroic figure to appear and run solely on their issues – a la Sam Brownback. If that knight in shining armor doesn’t appear, then the Christian vote might just stay home on Election Day.

That’s just one of the doomsday scenarios for Republicans. Another would be that the GOP actually does endorse a fire-breathing, Revelations-quoting social conservative, while in the meantime the Democrats put up a charmingly moderate face like Barack Obama or Hilary Clinton. While the Democrat would attract swing voters by talking about bipartisanship, the conservative would just scare the hell out of everybody. It’s also possible that social issues could actually splinter the party. Anyone who knows what a Bullmoose is will know that splintering generally doesn’t help political parties get the win. If you don’t know what a Bullmoose is, take more classes in Mabee Hall.

The Christian Right needs to shut the hell up and sit down for the good of the party. It needs to realize that any Republican president – no matter how moderate – will be more responsive to its values-based issues than a Democrat. At the same time, GOP candidates need to realize that getting in bed with the crazy Christians is the fastest way to make them appear partisan, unappealing to independents, and Bush-like. A Democrat can’t win on Iraq alone – Kerry couldn’t – but the Democratic nominee is going to be a well-groomed moderate who is going to court undecideds and talk about serious issues like Iraq, education and healthcare. The Republican nominee has to engage on those same issues and appeal to those same undecided voters. In other words, forget preaching to the far-right choir and start talking to the rest of America.