Ever since the Florida Gators cut down the nets in San Antonio last year, college basketball fans across the nation, myself included, have been awaiting this year’s Player’s Era, superstar freshman and the chaos that is college basketball. With the majority of the 2025 tournament being chalk, lots wondered if this year would be similar. It is safe to say it will not be. But before we get ahead of ourselves, we have to progress through 31 conference tournaments, determine the auto bids, find the bid stealers and make it to selection Sunday. I am going to break down the top tournaments, predict a winner and explain why.
Sources of info: Kenpom subscription, Ryan Hammer, ESPN, eye test (watching games)
DISCLAIMER: My Bias: Colorado State – Spoiler, we are not winning the Mountain West, so no bias
Atlantic Coast Conference – Duke Blue Devils
Future top 5 draft pick, and freshman, Cameron Boozer has been the most consistent player in the country all year. Think of any stat and he excels at it. He averages 22 and 10 and is rated number one in Kenpom’s offensive rating metric. As far as the team goes, defense is the calling card. Number one overall in Kenpom and absolutely suffocating. Duke’s specialty is forcing teams into hard shots, with an average defensive two point attempt distance of 6.9 feet, placing them into the top 30 in that metric. This is thanks to their elite front-court and the way they force teams into long possessions, 18.4 seconds to be exact. Duke did not shoot amazing against Michigan, but they allowed the Wolverines to shoot 40% from the field compared to their average 58.7%. The only issue with Duke is how young they are. In the D1 experience metric they rank 301 in the country with 0.89 years. (literally playing more first years than not) The Blue Devils always get elite freshman recruits, but they are gone the next year to the draft. We saw this hurt them last year in the Final Four when Jon Scheyer gave 18 year old Cooper Flagg sole responsibility for the final possession. It is a slippery slope.
Big Ten Conference – Illinois Fighting Illini
This team is so fun all around. Yes, Michigan is an insane squad this year, but picking the top team in each conference is not what college basketball is all about. The Illini have the best rated offense on Kenpom thanks to their powerful and efficient mix of crashing the boards, and elite three point shooting. The roster makeup is the best part of this team. Amazing freshman Keaton Wagler, Andrej Stojaković, son of NBA player Peja Stojaković, and two seven-footers with the last name Ivisic. Head Coach, Brad Underwood, has put on a recruiting masterclass. Not only finding talent but retaining it. The Illini return 38.7% of their minutes from last year, 73 in the country. They offensively rebound at an insane rate, which makes up for the slow style, by giving them extra possessions. Illinois also throws up three pointers like there is no tomorrow, and makes them. Defense is a slight concern and relying on the three is volatile, but this team can adapt and win games.
Big Twelve Conference – Iowa State Cyclones
I do not know. I do not know who will win this conference. It is the best conference top to bottom, and really any team could make a run at the conference title as far down as BYU at number seven. If Houston finds makeable shots, they could get it. If Darryn Peterson chooses to compete, Kansas could win every game by 15. And of course Arizona. I am so grateful to have had the opportunity to attend the Arizona-Kansas game in Allen Fieldhouse, and I have never watched a team so good as they were for the first 27 minutes of that game. We may have been second row from the wall, but you could see their speed and efficiency from everywhere. They were elite inside and scored 19 points before making their first three. Arizona’s offensive rebounding with Krivas and playmaking with Burries is borderline unfair. Krivas also had 6 blocks. If there is one team that could take down the Wildcats, it is Iowa State. Their defense is top tier and their slow pace makes you play to their style, which boasts a great offensive rating. The Big Twelve also recently unveiled their new LED court that will be in use, in case you need another reason to tune in.
Southeastern Conference – Florida Gators
If you have been following the Gators, you may be able to appreciate the absolute chaos their season has been. Coming off a National Championship yet sending Walter Clayton Jr. to the NBA, this team’s success was up in the air. Head Coach, Todd Golden, went out and picked up Princeton guard Xavian Lee and Arkansas guard Boogie Fland. With their returning front court and new additions, they looked like a Final Four lock, at worst. Unfortunately, Lee and Fland completely forgot how to shoot threes over summer and the Gators started the season 5-4. Three of the losses were to Arizona, Duke and Connecticut so acceptable, but the eye test was a huge red flag. The Gators were shooting 27% from three in those losses, insane. Since then, the guards have settled down and the front court? Do not get me started. Watching Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu play basketball is a special experience. Florida’s greatest fear is how deep the SEC goes. All the teams are capable of beating each other. If you have not watched Arkansas play, try to. The Razorbacks always have the best player on the floor, in Darius Acuff Jr., and the best coach in John Calipari.
Big East Conference – Uconn Huskies
I was waiting to pick the Big East until Uconn got their rematch with St. Johns. There were concerns with St. Johns at the beginning of the season as they stacked losses. Losses to good teams but losses nonetheless. The Red Storm then won 13 in a row when league play started, including a win over Uconn. St. Johns has some struggles that are obvious but this section is not about them. Uconn has been a solid team all year, never falling below six in the AP Poll. The Huskies play very slow but very efficiently on both sides of the ball. Uconn just held St. Johns to 40 points, and get this, St. Johns missed 24 straight field goals to close the game, tallying 14 points in the second half. It is no question who is the best in the Big East.
West Coast Conference – Saint Mary’s Gaels
It is the same story every year. Elite, fast Gonzaga against the slow decisive Gaels. Gonzaga is defined by their elite size and frontcourt talent. Between Graham Ike and Braden Huff, the Bulldogs lock down the paint and make it very hard to score, they do the same on offense. Dominating in the paint and getting 60.2% of their points from 2 pointers. The major issue here is that Braden Huff is out with a knee injury. The Gaels have an amazing chance to lean on their quality three point shooting and controlling playstyle to capture a WCC title. Watch out for Santa Clara. They have been just as good as the Bulldogs and Gaels yet sit firmly on the bubble. ESPN currently projects them as a “Last Four In” team. Never underestimate a team with something to play for and everything to lose.
Mid-American Conference – Akron Zips
The thing is that I love Miami University. They are set to go a perfect 31-0, and winning the conference tournament would send them to the tournament 34-0. I want that to happen, if you have not watched them play I highly suggest it. Peter Suder, Luke Skaljac and Brant Byers will change your life. Unfortunately, they will more than likely have to face the Zips in the championship game, who they only beat by 3 earlier in January. Beating a team twice is difficult, especially one that puts up almost 90 points a game. Net rating calculates point differential per 100 possessions and leans Akron’s way by less than 2 points. These teams are very similar, and the rematch will be absolute cinema.
Atlantic 10 Conference – Saint Louis Billikens
The A10 never disappoints with elite basketball and Saint Louis is exactly that. They could have gone 25-0 to start the season if not for an insane off balance three pointer by Stanford with 0.8 seconds left. The Billikens slightly rely on the three, shooting 44.7% of their field goals from behind the arc. They shoot it at 40.8%, second in the nation, so they make it work. Their biggest weakness is ball security. Saint Louis has lost two of their last three, to Rhode Island and Dayton. They turned the ball over 18 and 15 times respectively. Too many. Storyline wise the offense runs through Robbie Avila. Avila played for Indiana State when they were, arguably, an auto bid for the NCAA Tournament, but left out despite being ranked 29 in the Net. Is this year Avila’s revenge?
Mountain West Conference – San Diego State Aztecs
This one will be more emotional than analytical as this is the final MWC tournament with the current teams. There are also so many teams that could win it, we do not have time to look at them all. Just throw names in a hat you will have a good chance at being right. Utah State, SDSU and New Mexico are all elite teams that could beat each other on any given night, which they have been doing all year. The best record in league play is 13-4 held by both Utah State and San Diego State. I personally like San Diego State’s defensive style and elite coaching by Brian Dutcher. I also just watched them beat Utah State by 17. So who knows, maybe Air Force surprises everyone. (Just kidding) Oftentimes you root for one team in a conference and against everyone else, but with the Mountain West it has always felt different to me. All the teams are good and with at least one always on the bubble, games matter and the end of the season is stressful, in a good way. The MWC always has that underdog aspect to them, and while the new PAC-12 will arguably be a better basketball conference, the MW will always have that special mid-high major feeling. With that being said, enjoy the final Mountain West tournament, and may it serve as a reminder to not take anything for granted.
Ivy League – Yale Bulldogs
Yale stands alone at the top of the Ivy League, with a one game lead over Harvard and a three game lead over Penn. They shoot the three pointer at 41%, the best in the country. Outrageous. The Bulldogs do not rely on the three either, only shooting 36.2% of their field goals from behind the arc. Yale’s defense is a slight concern and they have played some concerningly close games as of recently. They have had two of their last 4 games go to overtime. If you are unsure of the defensive inconsistencies, Harvard is your pick. They have beaten Yale and lost in overtime during league play. They play better defense but the offense is less exciting. Pick your poison.
